El Niño Is Strengthening: The Cost of the Shock and the Window to Prevent It
WMO confirms that El Niño is intensifying rapidly. The African Development Bank estimates a potential $10 billion to $20 billion shock, while FAO and WFP seek funding for preventive measures in 22 countries.
The World Meteorological Organization confirmed on 3 July 2026 that the tropical Pacific had entered an El Niño phase, then announced on 20 July that the event was expected to intensify rapidly between August and October, with a possible peak in November.
Models indicate sea-surface temperature anomalies of more than 2°C in some reference areas.
The estimate was made public on 26 July 2026 by Anthony Nyong, the bank's director for climate change. It is a risk scenario, not a forecast: the worst-affected economies could lose 1% to 2% of gross domestic product.
A global phenomenon with opposite regional effects
El Niño is an unusual warming of part of the equatorial Pacific. It changes atmospheric circulation and shifts rainfall patterns worldwide. But its effects are neither uniform nor automatic.
- Southern Africa during the main agricultural season from November to March
- West Africa and the Sahel during the growing season
- South Asia and parts of Australia
- Central America and northern South America
- The Horn of Africa, with greater risk of floods and landslides
- Parts of East Africa
For temperature, WMO's bulletin forecasts above-normal conditions across much of the world's land area for August to October. These projections are probabilistic and must be translated by national meteorological services into local warnings adapted to crops, agricultural calendars and river basins.
Countries heavily dependent on rain-fed agriculture are most exposed, because poor rainfall distribution can reduce yields even when the annual total appears close to normal.
Fund assistance before losses occur
On 18 June, FAO and WFP launched their first joint anticipatory-action appeal linked to El Niño: $202 million to protect 8.8 million people in 22 countries across Africa, Asia-Pacific, Latin America and the Caribbean.
The agencies can already support 1.2 million people; an additional $167 million would cover another 7.6 million.
Anticipatory action does not distribute the same assistance everywhere. It can include cash transfers before prices rise, seeds resistant to drought or flooding, livestock vaccination and feeding campaigns, water storage, reinforcement of flood barriers or agricultural information sent directly to producers.
Every dollar invested early enough can avoid up to seven dollars in losses and response costs. The ratio depends on context, forecast quality and the speed of activation; it is not a guarantee applicable to every crisis.
What remains uncertain
The term “super El Niño”, used in several recent analyses, is not a single official category and thresholds vary between institutions. WMO confirms rapid intensification without guaranteeing a historic record.
The main obstacle is no longer technical. Warning systems, response plans and local partners exist in many countries, but most funding still arrives after the shock. Aid delivered too late cannot save a crop or move stocks before a flood.
Governments therefore need not predict every effect perfectly, but prepare for several scenarios at once: drought, floods, agricultural losses, price spikes and population displacement.
Read the original article on OMM, FAO, PAM, Banque africaine de développement et Reuters